Tag Archive for ‘FOMC’

A Closer Look at the Federal Open Market Committee November Meeting – Not Much Clarity

“Based on the relatively limited information received since the September FOMC meeting, participants generally agreed that the case for increasing the target range for the federal funds rate had continued to strengthen.” The minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reveal a broad consensus around the view that the labor market has improved substantially, growth… Read More ›

First Look at the Federal Open Market Committee November Meeting – For the Time Being

Analysts scrutinize the statements released immediately following the meetings of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for hints about the likely direction of policy. The statement released after the November meeting was largely a rerun of that following the September meeting. Very few of the words changed. A mild deceleration in household spending… Read More ›

A Closer Look at the FOMC September Meeting – How Low Can It Go?

Three dissents, all preferring an increase in the federal funds rate at the September meeting, focused on the same core argument: the current level of the unemployment rate signals a tight labor market that will persist for several years, push inflation closer to target and risks overshooting if monetary policy normalization is delayed too long. The overshooting could require a… Read More ›

FOMC Statement: All Eyes on December

The statement released following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) fell in line with market expectations as the committee chose to keep the federal funds rate unchanged.  The Committee’s assessment of the economy remained positive, leaving a December rate hike very much in play.  In the statement, the Committee continued its upbeat assessment of labor and economic activity…. Read More ›

Second Look at the Federal Open Market Committee July Meeting – Two Bullets Dodged, What Next?

The minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) confirm that the committee viewed the combination of an abrupt slowdown in payroll employment growth in May, and the uncertainty surrounding the implications of the UK referendum on leaving the European Union (“Brexit”) in late June, was too much risk to bear, and chose not to take… Read More ›

First Look at the Federal Open Market Committee July Meeting – See You in September

The statement released following the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sends a strong signal that the June jitters that upended the April willingness have passed; a September federal funds rate increase is back on the table. In the statement, the committee upgraded their assessment of the economy since June. Economic activity was upgraded to “expanding at… Read More ›

First Look at the Federal Open Market Committee June Meeting – Loud and Clear II: About Face

While the minutes from the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated that most participants favored an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in June, “under the right conditions,” conditions had other plans (April). And the committee voted unanimously to keep the target range unchanged at the current 0.25%-0.50%. The statement released following… Read More ›

The Employment Situation in May – All Systems: NO

April was a bad month, May is a shocker, and June is a non-starter. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment growth stalled in May, expanding by only 38 thousand. The gains in May were expected to be depressed because of roughly 40 thousand Verizon workers on strike, but even taking that into account May’s gains were well… Read More ›

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee April Meeting – Loud and Clear(?)

“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.” Interpreting the statement released at… Read More ›