Data rss

Consumer Confidence in August, Interest Rate Hikes by New Years, Housing Market Implications?

Six years after the official end of the recession consumer confidence has recovered most of the ground lost during the downturn. The Conference Board reported that its trademark Consumer Confidence Index jumped more than 10 points in August. The present situation index and expectations index rose 11.1 points and 10.2 points, respectively, pushing the overall confidence index up 10.5 points… Read More ›

Rates on New Home Loans Hit 2015 High

On average, the contract rate on conventional mortgages used to purchase newly-built homes increased 12 basis points in July, to 3.98 percent, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).  At 3.98, this is the highest the contract rate has been since December of last year. Initial fees have some ability to offset increases in a… Read More ›

GDP Growth in the Second Quarter – Upside Surprise, Implications for Fed Action?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015, revising the earlier 2.3% growth estimate up to 3.7%. The revisions were broad based with faster growth in consumption, investment, government spending and trade adding to the upward revision. Business investment contributed 0.8 of the 1.4 percentage point increase, followed… Read More ›

Pending Sales Maintain the Ride Up

The Pending Home Sales Index increased in July for the sixth time in seven months. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), increased 0.5% in July from an upwardly revised June report, and is up 7.4% from the same month a year ago. Most of the… Read More ›

How Long Does It Take to Build an Apartment Building?

The average length of time to complete construction of a multifamily building, after obtaining authorization, was 11.7 months according to the 2014 Survey of Construction (SOC) from the Census Bureau. The permit-to-completion time increased by approximately one month from 2013 to 2014, as per unit median square footage and the share of multifamily buildings with 20+ units rose. The average… Read More ›

House Prices Rise in the Second Quarter of 2015; Appreciation Will Continue Through 2016

The recent release from Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Case-Shiller indicates that their measure of national house prices, the House Price Index – National, rose by 0.3% on a quarterly seasonally adjusted basis in the second quarter of 2015. Including a .03% rise in the first quarter of 2012, the second quarter of 2015 marks the 14th consecutive quarter-over-quarter increase in the house… Read More ›

Housing Continues Improvement

July new homes sales rose 5.4 percent from June and 25.8 percent from July 2014, joining other improving housing market indicators. The increase brings annual new home sales to 507,000, or just over half way back to a normal year. New home sales are greatly dependent on existing home sales since three-quarters or more of new homes are purchased by… Read More ›

Are AD&C Lending Conditions Tightening?

Builders and developers continue to report easing credit conditions for acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) loans according to NAHB’s most recent survey on AD&C financing, although a separate Federal Reserve survey is trending differently. In the second quarter of 2015, the overall net tightening index of the NAHB survey was -30.7,which represents somewhat less easing than in the first quarter… Read More ›

Increase for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction

Single-family homes built-for-rent increased to approximately 8,000 starts for the second quarter of 2015, compared to about 6,000 for the same period of 2014. The share and count of built-for-rent starts are off post-recession highs and will likely approach historical norms as the housing market continues to expand. However, given the relatively small size of this market, care must be taken when tracing changes in the… Read More ›