13% of Adults Are Planning a Home Purchase in the Next 12 Months

In the first quarter of 2019, 13% of adults reported plans to purchase a home within a year. That is just slightly below where the share stood a year earlier, at 17%.  The decline marks the second consecutive year-over-year drop in the share of adults planning to buy a home, providing further evidence that the deterioration in affordability is having an impact on people’s homeownership plans.

Additional findings from the latest Housing Trends Report (HTR) show that in the first quarter of 2019, 60% of prospective home buyers had never owned a home before. In comparison, a year earlier, 54% of buyers were first-timers.

Planning to Buy a Home in Next 12 Months: Prospective Home Buyers
(Percent of Respondents)

First-time Buyer Share
(Percent of Prospective Home Buyers)

The intention to buy is inversely related to age: whereas 20% of Millennials have plans to purchase a home in the next year, only 15% of Gen X’ers, 7% of Boomers, and 3% Seniors have the same plans.  Geographically, respondents in the South are slightly more likely to be planning a home purchase (16%), than those in other regions: Northeast (13%), West (13%), and Midwest (11%).

Planning to Buy Home in Next 12 Months by Generation
(Percent of Respondents)

Planning to Buy Home in Next 12 Months by Region
(Percent of Respondents)

Most of the 20% of Millennials planning a home purchase are first-time home buyers (77 percent). Among prospective Gen X and Boomer buyers, 56 percent and 23 percent, respectively, would be buying a home for the first time. Geographically, a majority of those planning a home purchase in each of the four regions are first-time buyers, led by the Northeast (67%).

First-time Buyer Share by Generation
(Percent of Prospective Home Buyers)

First-time Buyer Share by Region
(Percent of Prospective Home Buyers)

In terms of the type of home these prospective home buyers are interested in, 41% are looking to buy an existing home and 22% a newly-built home. The remaining 38% would buy either a new or existing home.

* The Housing Trends Report (HTR) is a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are not seasonally adjusted due to the short-time horizon of the series, and therefore only year-over-year comparisons are statistically valid.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the first in a series of five posts highlighting results for the first quarter of 2019.



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