With the end of 2017 approaching, NAHB’s Eye on Housing is reviewing the posts that attracted the most readers over the last year. In November, Robert Dietz tracked the ongoing decline in median new home size.
After increasing and leveling off in recent years, new single-family home size continued along a general trend of decreasing size during the third quarter of 2017. This change marks a reversal of the trend that had been in place as builders focused on the higher end of the market during the recovery. As the entry-level market expands, NAHB expects typical new home size to fall as well.
According to third quarter 2017 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area was slightly lower at 2,378 square feet. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes declined to 2,518 square feet.
On a less volatile one-year moving average, the recent trend of declines in new home size can be see on the graph above, although current readings remain elevated. Since cycle lows (and on a one-year moving average basis), the average size of new single-family homes is 10% higher at 2,620 square feet, while the median size is 14% higher at 2,399 square feet.
The post-recession increase in single-family home size is consistent with the historical pattern coming out of recessions. Typical new home size falls prior to and during a recession as home buyers tighten budgets, and then sizes rise as high-end homebuyers, who face fewer credit constraints, return to the housing market in relatively greater proportions. This pattern was exacerbated during the current business cycle due to market weakness among first-time homebuyers. But the recent declines in size indicate that this part of the cycle has ended, and size will trend lower as builders add more entry-level homes into inventory.
In contrast to single-family patterns, new multifamily apartment size is down compared to the pre-recession period. This is due to the weak for-sale multifamily market and strength for rental demand.