Another Look at GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter

The second estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows negligible revisions, unchanged overall at a 1.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew slightly faster than in the initial estimate, 3.0% annually instead of 2.5%, while fixed investment and state and local government spending contributed less to growth than the previous estimate.

These revisions leave the overall economic outlook largely unchanged from the advance estimate (GDP). Consumer spending and a rebound in fixed investment are expected to be the reliable drivers of growth going forward, and federal government spending in a new administration and net exports in a strong US dollar global marketplace will be the wildcards.

 



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