55+ Housing Market Remained Solid in Fourth Quarter of 2015

Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market remained solid in the fourth quarter of 2015 as indicated by the National Association of Home Builder’s 55+ HMI survey results.  The single family 55+ HMI increased to 61, up one point from the previous quarter (Figure 1). This quarter’s reading marks the highest point of the single-family 55+ HMI since the survey’s inception in 2008. Further, it is important to highlight that results in this market segment have been above 50 for the last seven quarters, which indicates continued demand.

The 55+ HMI is based on a survey that asks builders if current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales are good, fair or poor (high, average or low for traffic) in the 55+ single family market as well as in the multifamily condominium market. Index numbers above 50 indicate that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Figure 1: 55+ Housing Market Index: Single-family

single family

In the fourth quarter, the multifamily condominium 55+ HMI, dropped eight points to 42, falling back to a range typical of the past year and a half for the index (Figure 2).

Figure 2: 55+ Housing Market Index: Multifamily Condo

multifamily condo

In addition, the 55+ HMI survey tracks builder sentiment concerning production and demand in the market for 55+ multifamily rental housing.  In the fourth quarter, the production index increased one point to 56 from the previous quarter (Figure 3).

Figure 3: 55+ Housing Market Index: Multifamily Rental – Present Production

multifamily rental present production

On the demand side, the index dropped four points to 66 from the previous quarter (Figure 4). Despite the slight drop, the index result is strong with a reading well above the break-even point of 50.

Figure 4: 55+ Housing Market Index: Multifamily Rental – Present Demandmultifamily rental present demand

For a more detailed version of the results, including the complete history of every series generated from the survey, visit NAHB’s 55+ HMI web page.