According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS), mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased by a not seasonally adjusted monthly rate of 8.4% in May 2014. However, on a 12-month basis, mortgage applications for new home purchases in May 2014 were 4.9% higher than their level in May 2013. This is the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year increases in mortgage applications for new home purchases. The last 12-month decrease in mortgage applications for new home purchases took place in December 2013 (-15.6%), at which point the BAS reached a 22-month low. Since December 2013, the BAS has risen by 57.8%
According to the MBA, its BAS tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of home builders across the country and participants in the survey collectively account for approximately 20.0% of new home sales based on the Census Bureau estimates. The MBA also notes that since the mortgage application is typically made around the same time that the sales contract is signed, capturing the number of mortgage applications will give an indication of new home sales.
The figure above compares the MBA’s BAS, which tracks changes in mortgage applications for new home purchases, with Census’ not seasonally adjusted new home sales data. According to the figure, the BAS rose by 37.2% between December 2012 and March 2013. Over the same period, not seasonally adjusted new home sales rose by 46.4%. Between March 2013 and December 2013, the BAS fell by 38.4% while new home sales declined by 24.4%. Since December 2013, but excluding May 2014, the BAS rose by 72.3%, corresponding with a 32.3% increase in new home sales.
Incorporating the results of the BAS, the MBA estimates a not seasonally adjusted level of 36,000 new home sales and a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 374,000 new home sales in May 2014. This is an interesting project that MBA has taken on, constructing an analogy to NAR’s pending home sales index, for newly constructed single family homes, based on mortgage applications. It’s a relatively new project so the history of the index is short, but it will be interesting to see how the index performs as a predictor over time.