The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2014. Real GDP contracted at a 2.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from +0.1% growth in the first (advance) estimate, and -1.0% in the second estimate.
The downward revision to the third estimate was concentrated in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and trade. PCE grew at a 1.0% annual rate rather than the 3.1% in the second estimate, shaving 1.4 percentage points from growth. Exports contracted faster and imports expanded faster than previously estimated, reducing growth by an additional 0.5 percentage points in the third estimate.
Early indications are that the second quarter numbers will be much stronger. Let’s move on.