Confidence in New 55+ Home Sales Posts Another Year-Over-Year Gain

Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market improved the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago, according to NAHB’s  latest 55+ Housing Market Indices (55+ HMIs).

There are separate 55+ HMIs for two segments of the 55+ housing market: single-family homes and multifamily condominiums.  Each 55+ HMI is based on a survey that asks if market conditions are good, fair or poor. An index number below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good.

Although both 55+ HMIs remain below 50, both have improved significantly from a year ago.  The single-family index increased 10 points to a level of 28, the fifth consecutive quarter of year over year improvements.  Although multifamily condos remain the weakest segment of the 55+ housing market, the 55+HMI for condos also showed a substantial year-over-year increase, of six points to 19.

55+HMI 12Q4Meanwhile, the 55+ multifamily rental indices, which had already recovered substantially in 2011, remained relatively stable in the fourth quarter, although there was a slight pullback due to uncertainty about the low-income housing tax credit—the financial driver behind a significant portion of apartments built for this segment of the market. Present production dropped three points to 31, expected future production dipped one point to 34, current demand for existing units dropped four points to 38 and expected future demand fell five points to 39.

Like the overall housing market, the 55+ segment of the market is undergoing a slow but steady recovery, but there are some obstacles to a continued and stronger recovery.  While problems with tight credit conditions for buyers and obtaining accurate appraisals are still lingering, new problems like spot shortages and rising costs for labor, materials and lots are beginning to emerge.

For more information about NAHB’s 55+ HMI survey see www.nahb.org/55HMI



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